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There are versions of this which were blatantly obvious at the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine war.

The propagandists were shouting "UKRAINE IS WINNING, ONLY A FEW MORE WEEKS", and the (generally pretty well respected) western geopolitical analysts were more-or-less repeating it.

To the extent that I imagine some fairly large boomer retirement plans did at least a few investment transactions under the assumption that Russia was not going to last more than a year.

The beast has no eyes and no ears...